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Alberschwende vs Admira Dornbirn — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Alberschwende
Alberschwende
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Admira Dornbirn
Admira Dornbirn
11/9/2024Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 14Sportplatz Alberschwende

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Alberschwende42%
×Draw22%
Admira Dornbirn36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alberschwende
1.86
Admira Dornbirn
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 55 away

creates per match

Alberschwende
1.85
Admira Dornbirn
2.02

allows per match

Alberschwende
1.45
Admira Dornbirn
1.87

finishing

Alberschwende+0.00on par
Admira Dornbirn+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alberschwende ↓

Admira Dornbirn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Alberschwende or draw
64%
Alberschwende or Admira Dornbirn
78%
Draw or Admira Dornbirn
58%

Winning margin

Alberschwende wins by 2+
22%
Admira Dornbirn wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Alberschwende 1+ goals
84%
Alberschwende 2+ goals
55%
Alberschwende 3+ goals
28%
Admira Dornbirn 1+ goals
82%
Admira Dornbirn 2+ goals
52%
Admira Dornbirn 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Alberschwende (draw refunded)
53%
Admira Dornbirn (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alberschwende at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.45 · 71 matches

Admira Dornbirn away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.87 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alberschwende attack 1.85 + Admira Dornbirn defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.86

Admira Dornbirn attack 2.02 + Alberschwende defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alberschwende scores more
42%
level
22%
Admira Dornbirn scores more
36%

Alberschwende at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alberschwende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Alberschwende 1–1 Admira Dornbirn

Alberschwende and Admira Dornbirn drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Alberschwende in Alberschwende.