Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Admira Dornbirn vs Alberschwende — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Admira Dornbirn
Admira Dornbirn
FT
2 – 0
Alberschwende
Alberschwende
8/10/2024Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 1Sportplatz Admira Dornbirn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Admira Dornbirn53%
×Draw20%
Alberschwende28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Dornbirn
2.40
Alberschwende
1.71

Admira Dornbirn creates 40% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 73 away

creates per match

Admira Dornbirn
3.17
Alberschwende
1.68

allows per match

Admira Dornbirn
1.74
Alberschwende
1.62

finishing

Admira Dornbirn+0.00on par
Alberschwende+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Dornbirn ↓

Alberschwende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Admira Dornbirn or draw
72%
Admira Dornbirn or Alberschwende
80%
Draw or Alberschwende
47%

Winning margin

Admira Dornbirn wins by 2+
33%
Alberschwende wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Admira Dornbirn 1+ goals
91%
Admira Dornbirn 2+ goals
69%
Admira Dornbirn 3+ goals
42%
Alberschwende 1+ goals
82%
Alberschwende 2+ goals
51%
Alberschwende 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Admira Dornbirn (draw refunded)
66%
Alberschwende (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Dornbirn at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Alberschwende away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.62 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Dornbirn attack 3.17 + Alberschwende defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.40

Alberschwende attack 1.68 + Admira Dornbirn defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Admira Dornbirn scores more
53%
level
20%
Alberschwende scores more
28%

Admira Dornbirn at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Admira Dornbirn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Admira Dornbirn 2–0 Alberschwende

Admira Dornbirn beat Alberschwende 2-0 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Admira Dornbirn in Dornbirn.