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Albacete vs Villarreal II — Segunda División 2018

Albacete
Albacete
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
12/8/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 19Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Albacete49%
×Draw27%
Villarreal II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete
1.46
Villarreal II
0.95

Albacete creates 54% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 42 away

creates per match

Albacete
1.27
Villarreal II
0.81

allows per match

Albacete
1.09
Villarreal II
1.64

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Albacete or draw
75%
Albacete or Villarreal II
73%
Draw or Villarreal II
51%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+
24%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals
77%
Albacete 2+ goals
43%
Albacete 3+ goals
18%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
61%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
25%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)
67%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.09 · 149 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.27 + Villarreal II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Villarreal II attack 0.81 + Albacete defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Albacete scores more
49%
level
27%
Villarreal II scores more
25%

Albacete at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Albacete 2–0 Villarreal II

Albacete beat Villarreal II 2-0 in Segunda División on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.