Albacete 1–0 Villarreal II: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Villarreal II

2/26/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Albacete50%

×Draw27%

Villarreal II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchVillarreal II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.86

Albacete

1.41

Villarreal II

0.86

Albacete creates 64% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

1.74

creates per match

1.19

0.53

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Albacete

1.74

Villarreal II

1.19

allows per match

Albacete

0.53

Villarreal II

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par

Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Villarreal II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

77%

Albacete or Villarreal II

73%

Draw or Villarreal II

50%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

24%

Villarreal II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

76%

Albacete 2+ goals

41%

Albacete 3+ goals

17%

Villarreal II 1+ goals

58%

Villarreal II 2+ goals

21%

Villarreal II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

68%

Villarreal II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.74 + Villarreal II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.41

Villarreal II attack 1.19 + Albacete defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Albacete scores more

50%

level

27%

Villarreal II scores more

23%

Albacete at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff