Albacete 0–1 Gimnastic: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gimnastic

E. Attipoe 90+1' (OG)

5/15/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 36Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Albacete57%

×Draw27%

Gimnastic16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchGimnastic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.63

Albacete

1.46

Gimnastic

0.63

Albacete creates 132% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

1.74

creates per match

0.72

0.53

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Albacete

1.74

Gimnastic

0.72

allows per match

Albacete

0.53

Gimnastic

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Gimnastic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

84%

Albacete or Gimnastic

73%

Draw or Gimnastic

43%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

30%

Gimnastic wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

77%

Albacete 2+ goals

43%

Albacete 3+ goals

18%

Gimnastic 1+ goals

47%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

13%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

78%

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.74 + Gimnastic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Gimnastic attack 0.72 + Albacete defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Albacete scores more

57%

level

27%

Gimnastic scores more

16%

Albacete at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

R. Simon

46'

Dani González← E. Gómez

46'

Edgar Hernández← Pablo Fernández

50'

M. Trilles

59'

Fran Carbià← Dani Romera

59'

Javier Bonilla← Nil Jiménez

72'

J. Becerra← Robert Simón

75'

E. Attipoe← Javi Jiménez

75'

Sergi García← Kike Márquez

78'

Alberto Jiménez← Fran Álvarez

78'

Jordi Sánchez← Rubén Martínez

81'

Carlos Albarrán← Joan Oriol

83'

J. Bonilla

90+1'

E. AttipoeOwn goal

Albacete

Gimnastic

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Rubén De La Barrera

46'▲Dani González←▼E. Gómez

75'▲E. Attipoe←▼Javi Jiménez

75'▲Sergi García←▼Kike Márquez

78'▲Alberto Jiménez←▼Fran Álvarez

78'▲Jordi Sánchez←▼Rubén Martínez

Albacete substitutes

GonzálezAttipoeGarcíaJiménezSánchezRosićMontesMartínezLlinaresRestaGálvezMedina

Manager: Raúl Agné

46'▲Edgar Hernández←▼Pablo Fernández

59'▲Fran Carbià←▼Dani Romera

59'▲Javier Bonilla←▼Nil Jiménez

72'▲J. Becerra←▼Robert Simón

81'▲Carlos Albarrán←▼Joan Oriol

Gimnastic substitutes

HernándezCarbiàBonillaBecerraAlbarránParraGonziBuylaL'KouchaMontalvo

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Albacete 0–1 Gimnastic

Gimnastic beat Albacete 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 15, 2022.

Goals: E. Attipoe (90+1' o.g.).

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.

Albacete vs Gimnastic — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Albacete 0–1 Gimnastic