Albacete 0–1 Gimnastic: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gimnastic

Álvaro Vázquez 44'

2/11/2018

Segunda División · Round 26Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Albacete52%

×Draw27%

Gimnastic21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchGimnastic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.83

Albacete

1.46

Gimnastic

0.83

Albacete creates 76% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 30 away

1.25

creates per match

0.57

1.09

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Albacete

1.25

Gimnastic

0.57

allows per match

Albacete

1.09

Gimnastic

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Gimnastic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

79%

Albacete or Gimnastic

73%

Draw or Gimnastic

48%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

26%

Gimnastic wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

77%

Albacete 2+ goals

43%

Albacete 3+ goals

18%

Gimnastic 1+ goals

56%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

20%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

71%

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.09 · 150 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.25 + Gimnastic defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Gimnastic attack 0.57 + Albacete defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Albacete scores more

52%

level

27%

Gimnastic scores more

21%

Albacete at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

David Morillas

Albacete · D

7.2

Match Events

12'

Julio Pleguezuelo

16'

Roman Zozulya

42'

Maikel Mesa

44'

Álvaro Vázquez↳ N. Dumitru

55'

Chus Herrero

55'

M. Gaffoor← Chus Herrero

55'

Tete Morente← N. Dumitru

56'

Aridane← César de la Hoz

59'

J. Acuña← R. Zozulya

65'

Javi Jiménez← Abraham

77'

Esteban Saveljich

78'

Xavier Molina

79'

Tejera← Javi Márquez

82'

Rafael Jimenez Jarque

90'

Sergio Tejera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaceteGimnastic

Overview

48%Possession52%

5Total Shots5

9Corners3

16Fouls19

Shots

5Total Shots5

0On Target2

2Off Target2

3Blocked1

2Inside Box2

3Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

240Total Passes274

116Accurate Passes144

48%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls19

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

1Offsides6

Match Recap: Albacete vs Gimnastic

Gimnastic beat Albacete 1-0 in Segunda División on February 11, 2018.

Goals: Álvaro Vázquez (44').

Gimnastic controlled possession (52%) and registered 5 shots to 5.

The match was played at Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.

Albacete vs Gimnastic — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Albacete vs Gimnastic