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Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Alanyaspor
Alanyasporadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Galatasaray
Galatasaray
2/5/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · Quarter-finalsBahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Alanyaspor48%
×Draw21%
Galatasaray32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alanyaspor
2.19
Galatasaray
1.76

Alanyaspor creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

creates per match

Alanyaspor
3.24
Galatasaray
2.63

allows per match

Alanyaspor
0.90
Galatasaray
1.13

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.00on par
Galatasaray+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Galatasaray →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw
68%
Alanyaspor or Galatasaray
79%
Draw or Galatasaray
52%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+
28%
Galatasaray wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals
89%
Alanyaspor 2+ goals
64%
Alanyaspor 3+ goals
37%
Galatasaray 1+ goals
83%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
52%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)
60%
Galatasaray (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 3.24, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 3.24 + Galatasaray defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 2.19

Galatasaray attack 2.63 + Alanyaspor defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alanyaspor scores more
48%
level
21%
Galatasaray scores more
32%

Alanyaspor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alanyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Alanyaspor 2–0 Galatasaray

Alanyaspor beat Galatasaray 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on February 5, 2020.

The match was played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu in Alanya.