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Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Volgar Astrakhan — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
7/27/2025Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 2Respublikanskij Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz30%
×Draw26%
Volgar Astrakhan44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.19
Volgar Astrakhan
1.48

Volgar Astrakhan creates 24% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.33
Volgar Astrakhan
1.19

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.78
Volgar Astrakhan
1.04

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw
56%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Volgar Astrakhan
74%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
70%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
12%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
70%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
33%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
12%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
77%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
43%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
41%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.33 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.19 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
30%
level
26%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
44%

Volgar Astrakhan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Volgar Astrakhan

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Volgar Astrakhan 2-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on July 27, 2025.

The match was played at Respublikanskij Stadion Spartak in Vladikavkaz.