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Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Volgar Astrakhan — First League 2018

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
4/14/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz45%
×Draw27%
Volgar Astrakhan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.41
Volgar Astrakhan
1.08

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 31% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 76 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.57
Volgar Astrakhan
0.93

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
Volgar Astrakhan
1.24

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw
71%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Volgar Astrakhan
73%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
55%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
21%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
76%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
41%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
17%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
66%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
29%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
61%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
45%
level
27%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
29%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Volgar Astrakhan

Alaniya Vladikavkaz and Volgar Astrakhan drew 2-2 in First League on April 14, 2023.

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.