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Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Tyumen — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Tyumen
Tyumen
8/16/2025Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 5Respublikanskij Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz30%
×Draw23%
Tyumen47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.39
Tyumen
1.78

Tyumen creates 28% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.33
Tyumen
1.78

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.78
Tyumen
1.44

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par
Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Tyumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw
53%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Tyumen
77%
Draw or Tyumen
70%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
13%
Tyumen wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
75%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
40%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
16%
Tyumen 1+ goals
83%
Tyumen 2+ goals
53%
Tyumen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
39%
Tyumen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Tyumen away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.33 + Tyumen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tyumen attack 1.78 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
30%
level
23%
Tyumen scores more
47%

Tyumen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1–2 Tyumen

Tyumen beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Respublikanskij Stadion Spartak in Vladikavkaz.