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Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Tyumen — First League 2018

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tyumen
Tyumen
3/8/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz48%
×Draw26%
Tyumen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.48
Tyumen
1.01

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 47% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 55 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.57
Tyumen
0.78

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
Tyumen
1.40

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par
Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Tyumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw
74%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Tyumen
74%
Draw or Tyumen
52%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
24%
Tyumen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
77%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
43%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
19%
Tyumen 1+ goals
64%
Tyumen 2+ goals
27%
Tyumen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
65%
Tyumen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Tyumen away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Tyumen defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tyumen attack 0.78 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
48%
level
26%
Tyumen scores more
26%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Tyumen

Alaniya Vladikavkaz and Tyumen drew 0-0 in First League on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.