Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1–1 Akron: Result & Stats

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Akron

11/27/2023

First League · Round 20Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz43%

×Draw27%

Akron30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya VladikavkazExpected goals in this matchAkron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.10

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.38

Akron

1.10

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 25% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 74 away

1.57

creates per match

0.97

1.24

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.57

Akron

0.97

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

Akron

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Akron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw

70%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Akron

73%

Draw or Akron

57%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

20%

Akron wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

75%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

40%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

16%

Akron 1+ goals

67%

Akron 2+ goals

30%

Akron 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

59%

Akron (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Akron away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Akron defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.38

Akron attack 0.97 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

43%

level

27%

Akron scores more

30%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff