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Akron vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — First League 2018

Akron
Akron
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8/6/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Akron42%
×Draw28%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.31
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.08

Akron creates 21% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 70 away

creates per match

Akron
1.30
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24

allows per match

Akron
0.93
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.33

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Akron or draw
69%
Akron or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
72%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
58%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
19%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
73%
Akron 2+ goals
38%
Akron 3+ goals
14%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
66%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
29%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
58%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 74 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.30 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Akron scores more
42%
level
28%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
31%

Akron at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Akron 1–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Akron beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1-0 in First League on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk in Zhigulyovsk.