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Alamal Atbara vs Al Shorta — Sudani Premier League 2019

Alamal Atbara
Alamal Atbara
FT
0 – 0
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
5/28/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 16Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Alamal Atbara49%
×Draw28%
Al Shorta24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alamal Atbara
1.38
Al Shorta
0.88

Alamal Atbara creates 57% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 83 away

creates per match

Alamal Atbara
1.08
Al Shorta
0.89

allows per match

Alamal Atbara
0.87
Al Shorta
1.67

finishing

Alamal Atbara+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alamal Atbara ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alamal Atbara or draw
76%
Alamal Atbara or Al Shorta
72%
Draw or Al Shorta
51%

Winning margin

Alamal Atbara wins by 2+
23%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alamal Atbara 1+ goals
75%
Alamal Atbara 2+ goals
40%
Alamal Atbara 3+ goals
16%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
59%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
22%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)
67%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alamal Atbara at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alamal Atbara attack 1.08 + Al Shorta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Shorta attack 0.89 + Alamal Atbara defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alamal Atbara scores more
49%
level
28%
Al Shorta scores more
24%

Alamal Atbara at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alamal Atbara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alamal Atbara vs Al Shorta

Alamal Atbara and Al Shorta drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on May 28, 2021.

The match was played at Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium in Umm Durmān.