Al Shorta 0–1 Alamal Atbara: Result & Stats

Al Shorta

FT

0 – 1

Alamal Atbara

7/26/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 30Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Al Shorta40%

×Draw30%

Alamal Atbara30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al ShortaExpected goals in this matchAlamal Atbara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.94

Al Shorta

1.13

Alamal Atbara

0.94

Al Shorta creates 20% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 86 away

1.01

creates per match

0.90

0.97

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Al Shorta

1.01

Alamal Atbara

0.90

allows per match

Al Shorta

0.97

Alamal Atbara

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par

Alamal Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Alamal Atbara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw

70%

Al Shorta or Alamal Atbara

70%

Draw or Alamal Atbara

60%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+

17%

Alamal Atbara wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals

68%

Al Shorta 2+ goals

31%

Al Shorta 3+ goals

11%

Alamal Atbara 1+ goals

61%

Alamal Atbara 2+ goals

24%

Alamal Atbara 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)

57%

Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Alamal Atbara away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.01 + Alamal Atbara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Alamal Atbara attack 0.90 + Al Shorta defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Shorta scores more

40%

level

30%

Alamal Atbara scores more

30%

Al Shorta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff