Alamal Atbara 1–0 Al Rabta Kosti: Result & Stats

Alamal Atbara

FT

1 – 0

Al Rabta Kosti

11/15/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 8Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Alamal Atbara55%

×Draw26%

Al Rabta Kosti18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alamal AtbaraExpected goals in this matchAl Rabta Kosti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.72

Alamal Atbara

1.48

Al Rabta Kosti

0.72

Alamal Atbara creates 106% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 52 away

1.08

creates per match

0.56

0.87

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Alamal Atbara

1.08

Al Rabta Kosti

0.56

allows per match

Alamal Atbara

0.87

Al Rabta Kosti

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alamal Atbara+0.00on par

Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alamal Atbara ↓

Al Rabta Kosti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Alamal Atbara or draw

82%

Alamal Atbara or Al Rabta Kosti

74%

Draw or Al Rabta Kosti

45%

Winning margin

Alamal Atbara wins by 2+

29%

Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Alamal Atbara 1+ goals

77%

Alamal Atbara 2+ goals

43%

Alamal Atbara 3+ goals

19%

Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals

51%

Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals

16%

Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)

75%

Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alamal Atbara at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Al Rabta Kosti away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.87 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alamal Atbara attack 1.08 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.48

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.56 + Alamal Atbara defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alamal Atbara scores more

55%

level

26%

Al Rabta Kosti scores more

18%

Alamal Atbara at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alamal Atbara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff