Al Rabta Kosti 0–1 Alamal Atbara: Result & Stats

Al Rabta Kosti

FT

0 – 1

Alamal Atbara

7/1/2019

Sudani Premier League · Relegation Round - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Rabta Kosti40%

×Draw31%

Alamal Atbara29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Rabta KostiExpected goals in this matchAlamal Atbara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.87

Al Rabta Kosti

1.08

Alamal Atbara

0.87

Al Rabta Kosti creates 24% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 86 away

0.93

creates per match

0.90

0.84

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Al Rabta Kosti

0.93

Alamal Atbara

0.90

allows per match

Al Rabta Kosti

0.84

Alamal Atbara

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Alamal Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Rabta Kosti ↓

Alamal Atbara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Rabta Kosti or draw

71%

Al Rabta Kosti or Alamal Atbara

69%

Draw or Alamal Atbara

60%

Winning margin

Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+

16%

Alamal Atbara wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals

66%

Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals

29%

Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals

10%

Alamal Atbara 1+ goals

58%

Alamal Atbara 2+ goals

22%

Alamal Atbara 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)

58%

Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Rabta Kosti at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Alamal Atbara away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.93 + Alamal Atbara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Alamal Atbara attack 0.90 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Rabta Kosti scores more

40%

level

31%

Alamal Atbara scores more

29%

Al Rabta Kosti at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Rabta Kosti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff