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Al Zulfi vs Al Bukayriyah — Division 1 2018

Al Zulfi
Al Zulfi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Bukayriyah
Al Bukayriyah
N. Asiri 79'
F. Pinero 49'
5/12/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 33Al Zulfi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Zulfi42%
×Draw29%
Al Bukayriyah30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zulfi
1.23
Al Bukayriyah
0.99

Al Zulfi creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 86 away

creates per match

Al Zulfi
1.21
Al Bukayriyah
1.02

allows per match

Al Zulfi
0.97
Al Bukayriyah
1.24

finishing

Al Zulfi+0.00on par
Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zulfi ↓

Al Bukayriyah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Zulfi or draw
70%
Al Zulfi or Al Bukayriyah
71%
Draw or Al Bukayriyah
58%

Winning margin

Al Zulfi wins by 2+
18%
Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Zulfi 1+ goals
71%
Al Zulfi 2+ goals
35%
Al Zulfi 3+ goals
13%
Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals
63%
Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals
26%
Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Zulfi (draw refunded)
58%
Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zulfi at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

Al Bukayriyah away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zulfi attack 1.21 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.02 + Al Zulfi defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Zulfi scores more
42%
level
29%
Al Bukayriyah scores more
30%

Al Zulfi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Zulfi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
F. Pinero
79'
N. Asiri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Zulfi 1 – 1 Al Bukayriyah

Al Zulfi and Al Bukayriyah drew 1-1 in Division 1 on May 12, 2025.

Goals: F. Pinero (49'), N. Asiri (79').

The match was played at Al Zulfi Stadium in Al Zulfi.