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Al Bukayriyah vs Al Zulfi — Division 1 2018

Al Bukayriyah
Al Bukayriyah
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Zulfi
Al Zulfi
M. Sani 39'
1/10/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 16Al-Amal Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Bukayriyah42%
×Draw27%
Al Zulfi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Bukayriyah
1.35
Al Zulfi
1.14

Al Bukayriyah creates 18% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 34 away

creates per match

Al Bukayriyah
1.30
Al Zulfi
1.21

allows per match

Al Bukayriyah
1.07
Al Zulfi
1.41

finishing

Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par
Al Zulfi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Bukayriyah ↓

Al Zulfi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Bukayriyah or draw
68%
Al Bukayriyah or Al Zulfi
73%
Draw or Al Zulfi
58%

Winning margin

Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+
19%
Al Zulfi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals
74%
Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals
39%
Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals
15%
Al Zulfi 1+ goals
68%
Al Zulfi 2+ goals
32%
Al Zulfi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)
57%
Al Zulfi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Bukayriyah at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.07 · 84 matches

Al Zulfi away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.30 + Al Zulfi defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Al Zulfi attack 1.21 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Bukayriyah scores more
42%
level
27%
Al Zulfi scores more
32%

Al Bukayriyah at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Bukayriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
M. Sani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Bukayriyah vs Al Zulfi

Al Bukayriyah beat Al Zulfi 1-0 in Division 1 on January 10, 2025.

Goals: M. Sani (39').

The match was played at Al-Amal Club Stadium in Al Bukayriyah.