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Al Zawra'a vs Newroz — Iraqi League 2025

Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Newroz
Newroz
H. Abdulkareem 75', 63' (pen)
Rwa 66'
11/21/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al Zawra'a43%
×Draw27%
Newroz30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zawra'a
1.33
Newroz
1.07

Al Zawra'a creates 24% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 18 away

creates per match

Al Zawra'a
1.33
Newroz
1.28

allows per match

Al Zawra'a
0.87
Newroz
1.33

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par
Newroz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Newroz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw
70%
Al Zawra'a or Newroz
73%
Draw or Newroz
57%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
20%
Newroz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
74%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
38%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
15%
Newroz 1+ goals
66%
Newroz 2+ goals
29%
Newroz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
59%
Newroz (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

Newroz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.33 + Newroz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Newroz attack 1.28 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more
43%
level
27%
Newroz scores more
30%

Al Zawra'a at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
H. AbdulkareemPenalty
66'
Rwa
75'
H. Abdulkareem
Al
Newroz
Abdul Ghani Abbood Al Shahad
Manager: Abdul Ghani Abbood Al Shahad
J. Tsombos
Manager: J. Tsombos

Match Recap: Al Zawra'a vs Newroz

Al Zawra'a beat Newroz 2-1 in Iraqi League on November 21, 2025.

Goals: H. Abdulkareem (63' pen, 75'), Rwa (66').