Al Zawra'a 0–2 Newroz: Result & Stats

Al Zawra'a

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Newroz

Mohammad Sami 90+2'

Sattar Yaseen 2'

10/26/2023

Iraqi League · Round 1Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Al Zawra'a41%

×Draw28%

Newroz31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Zawra'aExpected goals in this matchNewroz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.08

Al Zawra'a

1.27

Newroz

1.08

Al Zawra'a creates 18% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 28 away

1.33

creates per match

1.29

0.87

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Al Zawra'a

1.33

Newroz

1.29

allows per match

Al Zawra'a

0.87

Newroz

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par

Newroz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Newroz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw

69%

Al Zawra'a or Newroz

72%

Draw or Newroz

59%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+

18%

Newroz wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals

72%

Al Zawra'a 2+ goals

36%

Al Zawra'a 3+ goals

14%

Newroz 1+ goals

66%

Newroz 2+ goals

29%

Newroz 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)

56%

Newroz (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

Newroz away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.33 + Newroz defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Newroz attack 1.29 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more

41%

level

28%

Newroz scores more

31%

Al Zawra'a at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Sattar Yaseen

79'

E. H. Houbeib

90+2'

Mohammad Sami

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff