Al Zawra'a 3–2 Al-Wasl FC: Result & Stats

Al Zawra'a

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Al-Wasl FC

B. Riascos 76', 68'

A. Jamous 45'

Miguel Borja 65', 5'

2/10/2026

AFC Champions League Two · Round of 16Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Zawra'a38%

×Draw24%

Al-Wasl FC38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Zawra'aExpected goals in this matchAl-Wasl FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

Al Zawra'a

1.50

Al-Wasl FC

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.75

creates per match

1.50

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Al Zawra'a

1.75

Al-Wasl FC

1.50

allows per match

Al Zawra'a

1.50

Al-Wasl FC

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par

Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Al-Wasl FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw

62%

Al Zawra'a or Al-Wasl FC

76%

Draw or Al-Wasl FC

62%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+

18%

Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals

78%

Al Zawra'a 2+ goals

44%

Al Zawra'a 3+ goals

19%

Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals

78%

Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals

44%

Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)

50%

Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Al-Wasl FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.75 + Al-Wasl FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Al-Wasl FC attack 1.50 + Al Zawra'a defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more

38%

level

24%

Al-Wasl FC scores more

38%

Al Zawra'a at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94

B. Riascos

Al Zawra'a · F

8.5

Match Events

5'

Miguel Borja↳ A. Saleh

25'

Soufiane BouftiniCard upgrade

27'

Soufiane Bouftini

41'

K. Al Senani← M. Ali

44'

Ali Saleh

45+3'

Sajjad Mohammed Mahdi Al Saedi

45'

A. Jamous

46'

Gabriel Vareta← A. Saleh

56'

Ibrahim TomiwaPenalty cancelled

65'

Miguel Borja

68'

B. Riascos↳ A. Jamous

70'

D. Ismael← M. Qasim

70'

Matheus← S. M. Mahdi Al Saedi

70'

A. Mfede← A. Jamous

70'

B. Palacios Alzate← F. Lima

76'

B. Riascos↳ Ibrahim

79'

Renato Junior← N. Gimenez

80'

M. Mohammad← Ibrahim

80'

Serginho← Miguel Borja

90+4'

Youssef Aziz

90+3'

Y. Aziz← R. Kadhim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl-Wasl

Overview

65%Possession35%

17Total Shots7

11Corners3

9Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots7

7On Target3

7Off Target1

3Blocked3

8Inside Box7

9Outside Box0

Passing

65%Possession35%

432Total Passes245

384Accurate Passes180

89%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0