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Al-Wasl FC vs Al Zawra'a — AFC Champions League Two 2025

Al-Wasl FC
Al-Wasl FCadvanced
AET
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
Adryelson 109', 90'
Miguel Borja 76'
B. Palacios Alzate 46'
Ibrahim 65', 21'
2/17/2026AFC Champions League TwoAFC Champions League Two · Round of 16Zabeel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al-Wasl FC56%
×Draw19%
Al Zawra'a25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Wasl FC
2.54
Al Zawra'a
1.67

Al-Wasl FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al-Wasl FC
2.75
Al Zawra'a
1.33

allows per match

Al-Wasl FC
2.00
Al Zawra'a
2.33

finishing

Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par
Al Zawra'a+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Wasl FC ↓

Al Zawra'a →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Al-Wasl FC or draw
75%
Al-Wasl FC or Al Zawra'a
81%
Draw or Al Zawra'a
44%

Winning margin

Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+
36%
Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals
92%
Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals
72%
Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals
46%
Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
81%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
50%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)
69%
Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Wasl FC at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Al Zawra'a away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Wasl FC attack 2.75 + Al Zawra'a defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.54

Al Zawra'a attack 1.33 + Al-Wasl FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al-Wasl FC scores more
56%
level
19%
Al Zawra'a scores more
25%

Al-Wasl FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al-Wasl FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34
AdryelsonAl Zawra'aAl Zawra'a
10.0

Match Events

21'
Ibrahim↳ H. Abdulkareem
41'
Hussein Falah
46'
B. Palacios Alzate← F. Lima
46'
B. Palacios Alzate
58'
Ali Saleh
65'
Ibrahim↳ K. Nabeel
69'
Matheus← M. Mohammad
70'
Hasan Abdulkareem
72'
M. Janeer← R. Tapia
72'
Serginho← A. Saleh
75'
S. M. Mahdi Al Saedi← Ibrahim
75'
A. Mfede← D. Ismael
76'
Miguel Borja↳ Serginho
80'
A. Saleh← Hugo
80'
Renato Junior← N. Gimenez
82'
S. M. Fadhil Najafi← H. Abdulkareem
82'
M. Qasim← K. Nabeel
90'
Adryelson↳ P. Malheiro
97'
T. Al Zaabi← Miguel Borja
108'
Amer Jamous
109'
Adryelson↳ P. Malheiro
111'
H. Ahmed← A. Hashem

Possession

60%Al-Wasl

Shots

30Al-Wasl

Pass accuracy

52%Al-Wasl

Statistics

Al-WaslAl
Overview
60%Possession40%
30Total Shots11
11Corners4
8Fouls14
Shots
30Total Shots11
12On Target5
14Off Target4
4Blocked2
21Inside Box5
9Outside Box6
Passing
60%Possession40%
603Total Passes410
490Accurate Passes307
81%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves8
Discipline
8Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Al-Wasl FC vs Al Zawra'a

Al-Wasl FC beat Al Zawra'a 3-2 in AFC Champions League Two on February 17, 2026.

Goals: Ibrahim (21', 65'), B. Palacios Alzate (46'), Miguel Borja (76'), Adryelson (90', 109').

Al-Wasl FC controlled possession (60%) and registered 30 shots to 11.

The match was played at Zabeel Stadium in Dubai.