Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Zawra'a vs Al-Nassr — AFC Champions League Two 2025

Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
Joao Felix 81'
A. Al Khaibari 52'
10/1/2025AFC Champions League TwoAFC Champions League Two · Group Stage - 2Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Zawra'a17%
×Draw21%
Al-Nassr62%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zawra'a
0.97
Al-Nassr
2.05

Al-Nassr creates 111% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Al Zawra'a
1.75
Al-Nassr
2.60

allows per match

Al Zawra'a
1.50
Al-Nassr
0.20

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par
Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Al-Nassr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw
38%
Al Zawra'a or Al-Nassr
79%
Draw or Al-Nassr
83%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
6%
Al-Nassr wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
62%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
25%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
7%
Al-Nassr 1+ goals
87%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
61%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
22%
Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.75 + Al-Nassr defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Al-Nassr attack 2.60 + Al Zawra'a defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more
17%
level
21%
Al-Nassr scores more
62%

Al-Nassr at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
A. Al KhaibariAl-NassrAl-Nassr · M
8.5

Match Events

39'
Hussein Falah
46'
A. Al Khaibari← A. Yahya
52'
R. Bani Hani← H. Abdulkareem
52'
A. Al Khaibari
67'
S. M. Fadhil Najafi← M. Humaidan
67'
H. Abdulkareem← R. Kadhim
71'
Maytham Jabbar
79'
M. Qasim← N. Al Rashdan
79'
M. Mohammad← Ibrahim
79'
M. Simakan← Angelo
81'
Joao Felix↳ S. Mane
90+7'
Mohamed Simakan
90'
Sadio Mané
90+1'
A. Al Hassan← M. Brozovic
90'
A. Ghareeb← S. Mane

Possession

36%Al

Shots

9Al

Pass accuracy

45%Al

Statistics

AlAl-Nassr
Overview
36%Possession64%
9Total Shots14
4Corners7
10Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots14
2On Target2
5Off Target7
2Blocked5
5Inside Box8
4Outside Box6
Passing
36%Possession64%
264Total Passes465
183Accurate Passes393
69%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
6Offsides4

AFC Champions League Two: Al Zawra'a 0–2 Al-Nassr

Al-Nassr beat Al Zawra'a 2-0 in AFC Champions League Two on October 1, 2025.

Goals: A. Al Khaibari (52'), Joao Felix (81').

Al-Nassr controlled possession (64%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Baghdad.