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Al-Nassr vs Al Zawra'a — AFC Champions League Two 2025

Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
K. Coman 56', 12'
Joao Felix 44'
A. Al Amri 29'
Wesley 19'
Ibrahim 50'
12/24/2025AFC Champions League TwoAFC Champions League Two · Group Stage - 6King Saud University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al-Nassr76%
×Draw14%
Al Zawra'a10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nassr
2.83
Al Zawra'a
0.92

Al-Nassr creates 208% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al-Nassr
3.33
Al Zawra'a
1.33

allows per match

Al-Nassr
0.50
Al Zawra'a
2.33

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par
Al Zawra'a+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Al Zawra'a →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw
90%
Al-Nassr or Al Zawra'a
86%
Draw or Al Zawra'a
24%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+
56%
Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals
94%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
77%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
53%
Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
60%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
23%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
89%
Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Al Zawra'a away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 3.33 + Al Zawra'a defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.83

Al Zawra'a attack 1.33 + Al-Nassr defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Al-Nassr scores more
76%
level
14%
Al Zawra'a scores more
10%

Al-Nassr at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
K. ComanAl-NassrAl-Nassr · M
9.2

Match Events

12'
K. Coman↳ Angelo
19'
Wesley
29'
A. Al Amri↳ Joao Felix
44'
Joao Felix↳ C. Ronaldo
46'
M. Maran← C. Ronaldo
46'
M. Qasim← H. Abdulkareem
46'
H. Abdulkareem← K. Nabeel
50'
Ibrahim↳ M. Qasim
56'
K. Coman↳ S. Al Nasser
59'
R. Bani Hani← M. Humaidan
62'
A. Al Hassan← M. Brozovic
62'
R. Al Ghamdi← K. Coman
62'
H. Camara← Joao Felix
68'
N. Al Sharari← Angelo
77'
A. Sadeq Mahmoud← N. Al Rashdan
82'
M. Mohammad← Ibrahim

Possession

56%Al-Nassr

Shots

18Al-Nassr

Pass accuracy

51%Al-Nassr

Statistics

Al-NassrAl
Overview
56%Possession44%
18Total Shots9
10Corners3
6Fouls8
Shots
18Total Shots9
8On Target5
7Off Target4
3Blocked0
11Inside Box7
7Outside Box2
Passing
56%Possession44%
530Total Passes423
481Accurate Passes370
91%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls8
3Offsides5

AFC Champions League Two: Al-Nassr 5–1 Al Zawra'a

Al-Nassr beat Al Zawra'a 5-1 in AFC Champions League Two on December 24, 2025.

Goals: K. Coman (12', 56'), Wesley (19'), A. Al Amri (29'), Joao Felix (44'), Ibrahim (50').

Al-Nassr controlled possession (56%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at King Saud University Stadium in Riyadh.