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Al Wehda vs Al-Shabab — Professional League 2019

Al Wehda
Al Wehda
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Shabab
Al-Shabab
4/23/2024Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 18Sur Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Wehda16%
×Draw20%
Al-Shabab64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Wehda
0.98
Al-Shabab
2.17

Al-Shabab creates 121% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 35 away

creates per match

Al Wehda
0.73
Al-Shabab
1.69

allows per match

Al Wehda
2.64
Al-Shabab
1.23

finishing

Al Wehda+0.00on par
Al-Shabab+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wehda ↓

Al-Shabab →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Al Wehda or draw
36%
Al Wehda or Al-Shabab
80%
Draw or Al-Shabab
84%

Winning margin

Al Wehda wins by 2+
5%
Al-Shabab wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Al Wehda 1+ goals
62%
Al Wehda 2+ goals
26%
Al Wehda 3+ goals
8%
Al-Shabab 1+ goals
89%
Al-Shabab 2+ goals
64%
Al-Shabab 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Al Wehda (draw refunded)
20%
Al-Shabab (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wehda at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Al-Shabab away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.23 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wehda attack 0.73 + Al-Shabab defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.98

Al-Shabab attack 1.69 + Al Wehda defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al Wehda scores more
16%
level
20%
Al-Shabab scores more
64%

Al-Shabab at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al-Shabab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Al Wehda 1–2 Al-Shabab

Al-Shabab beat Al Wehda 2-1 in Professional League on April 23, 2024.

The match was played at Sur Sports Complex in Sur.