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Al-Shabab vs Al Wehda — Professional League 2019

Al-Shabab
Al-Shabab
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Wehda
Al Wehda
10/10/2023Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 7AL Rustaq Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Shabab50%
×Draw26%
Al Wehda23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Shabab
1.49
Al Wehda
0.92

Al-Shabab creates 62% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 11 away

creates per match

Al-Shabab
1.34
Al Wehda
0.73

allows per match

Al-Shabab
1.11
Al Wehda
1.64

finishing

Al-Shabab+0.00on par
Al Wehda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Shabab ↓

Al Wehda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al-Shabab or draw
77%
Al-Shabab or Al Wehda
74%
Draw or Al Wehda
50%

Winning margin

Al-Shabab wins by 2+
26%
Al Wehda wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al-Shabab 1+ goals
77%
Al-Shabab 2+ goals
44%
Al-Shabab 3+ goals
19%
Al Wehda 1+ goals
60%
Al Wehda 2+ goals
23%
Al Wehda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al-Shabab (draw refunded)
68%
Al Wehda (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Shabab at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Al Wehda away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Shabab attack 1.34 + Al Wehda defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.49

Al Wehda attack 0.73 + Al-Shabab defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Shabab scores more
50%
level
26%
Al Wehda scores more
23%

Al-Shabab at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Shabab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Al-Shabab 0–1 Al Wehda

Al Wehda beat Al-Shabab 1-0 in Professional League on October 10, 2023.

The match was played at AL Rustaq Sports Complex in Rustaq.