Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Nassr — AFC Cup 2018

Al-Wasl FC
Al-Wasl FC
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Al-Nassr
Al-Nassradvanced
4/19/2026AFC CupAFC Cup · Quarter-finalsZabeel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al-Wasl FC24%
×Draw20%
Al-Nassr56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Wasl FC
1.48
Al-Nassr
2.30

Al-Nassr creates 55% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Al-Wasl FC
2.75
Al-Nassr
2.60

allows per match

Al-Wasl FC
2.00
Al-Nassr
0.20

finishing

Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par
Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Wasl FC ↓

Al-Nassr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Al-Wasl FC or draw
44%
Al-Wasl FC or Al-Nassr
80%
Draw or Al-Nassr
76%

Winning margin

Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+
11%
Al-Nassr wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals
77%
Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals
43%
Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals
19%
Al-Nassr 1+ goals
90%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
67%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)
30%
Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Wasl FC at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Wasl FC attack 2.75 + Al-Nassr defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Al-Nassr attack 2.60 + Al-Wasl FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al-Wasl FC scores more
24%
level
20%
Al-Nassr scores more
56%

Al-Nassr at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Al-Wasl FC 0–4 Al-Nassr

Al-Nassr beat Al-Wasl FC 4-0 in AFC Cup on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Zabeel Stadium in Dubai.