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Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Nassr — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Wasl FC
Al-Wasl FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
3/4/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Zabeel Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Wasl FC17%
×Draw24%
Al-Nassr59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Wasl FC
0.78
Al-Nassr
1.67

Al-Nassr creates 114% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

creates per match

Al-Wasl FC
0.73
Al-Nassr
1.52

allows per match

Al-Wasl FC
1.82
Al-Nassr
0.83

finishing

Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par
Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Wasl FC ↓

Al-Nassr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al-Wasl FC or draw
41%
Al-Wasl FC or Al-Nassr
76%
Draw or Al-Nassr
83%

Winning margin

Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+
5%
Al-Nassr wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals
54%
Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals
18%
Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals
4%
Al-Nassr 1+ goals
81%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
50%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)
23%
Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Wasl FC at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Wasl FC attack 0.73 + Al-Nassr defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Al-Nassr attack 1.52 + Al-Wasl FC defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Al-Wasl FC scores more
17%
level
24%
Al-Nassr scores more
59%

Al-Nassr at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Al-Wasl FC 1–0 Al-Nassr

Al-Wasl FC beat Al-Nassr 1-0 in AFC Champions League on March 4, 2019.

The match was played at Zabeel Stadion in Dubai.