Al Wahda FC 3–2 Al-Rayyan SC: Result & Stats

Al Wahda FC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Rayyan SC

4/20/2021

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Al Wahda FC48%

×Draw24%

Al-Rayyan SC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Wahda FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Rayyan SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.24

Al Wahda FC

1.69

Al-Rayyan SC

1.24

Al Wahda FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

1.60

creates per match

1.28

1.20

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Al Wahda FC

1.60

Al-Rayyan SC

1.28

allows per match

Al Wahda FC

1.20

Al-Rayyan SC

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Wahda FC+0.00on par

Al-Rayyan SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wahda FC ↓

Al-Rayyan SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al Wahda FC or draw

72%

Al Wahda FC or Al-Rayyan SC

76%

Draw or Al-Rayyan SC

52%

Winning margin

Al Wahda FC wins by 2+

25%

Al-Rayyan SC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Wahda FC 1+ goals

82%

Al Wahda FC 2+ goals

50%

Al Wahda FC 3+ goals

24%

Al-Rayyan SC 1+ goals

71%

Al-Rayyan SC 2+ goals

35%

Al-Rayyan SC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Al Wahda FC (draw refunded)

63%

Al-Rayyan SC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wahda FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Al-Rayyan SC away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wahda FC attack 1.60 + Al-Rayyan SC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.69

Al-Rayyan SC attack 1.28 + Al Wahda FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Wahda FC scores more

48%

level

24%

Al-Rayyan SC scores more

28%

Al Wahda FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Wahda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff