Al-Rayyan SC 0–1 Al Wahda FC: Result & Stats

Al-Rayyan SC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Wahda FC

4/23/2021

AFC Champions League · Group E - 4Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al-Rayyan SC24%

×Draw27%

Al Wahda FC49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Rayyan SCExpected goals in this matchAl Wahda FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.42

Al-Rayyan SC

0.92

Al Wahda FC

1.42

Al Wahda FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 8 away

1.20

creates per match

0.88

1.95

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Al-Rayyan SC

1.20

Al Wahda FC

0.88

allows per match

Al-Rayyan SC

1.95

Al Wahda FC

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Rayyan SC+0.00on par

Al Wahda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Rayyan SC ↓

Al Wahda FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al-Rayyan SC or draw

51%

Al-Rayyan SC or Al Wahda FC

73%

Draw or Al Wahda FC

76%

Winning margin

Al-Rayyan SC wins by 2+

8%

Al Wahda FC wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Al-Rayyan SC 1+ goals

60%

Al-Rayyan SC 2+ goals

23%

Al-Rayyan SC 3+ goals

7%

Al Wahda FC 1+ goals

76%

Al Wahda FC 2+ goals

41%

Al Wahda FC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Al-Rayyan SC (draw refunded)

33%

Al Wahda FC (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Rayyan SC at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

Al Wahda FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Rayyan SC attack 1.20 + Al Wahda FC defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.92

Al Wahda FC attack 0.88 + Al-Rayyan SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al-Rayyan SC scores more

24%

level

27%

Al Wahda FC scores more

49%

Al Wahda FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Wahda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff