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Al Urooba vs Al-Dhafra — Division 1 2018

Al Urooba
Al Urooba
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Al-Dhafra
Al-Dhafra
5/11/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 31Al Orooba Club / MS2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Al Urooba40%
×Draw25%
Al-Dhafra35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Urooba
1.49
Al-Dhafra
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 30 away

creates per match

Al Urooba
1.81
Al-Dhafra
1.63

allows per match

Al Urooba
1.14
Al-Dhafra
1.17

finishing

Al Urooba+0.00on par
Al-Dhafra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Urooba ↓

Al-Dhafra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Urooba or draw
65%
Al Urooba or Al-Dhafra
75%
Draw or Al-Dhafra
60%

Winning margin

Al Urooba wins by 2+
19%
Al-Dhafra wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Urooba 1+ goals
77%
Al Urooba 2+ goals
44%
Al Urooba 3+ goals
19%
Al-Dhafra 1+ goals
75%
Al-Dhafra 2+ goals
40%
Al-Dhafra 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al Urooba (draw refunded)
53%
Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Urooba at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.14 · 72 matches

Al-Dhafra away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Urooba attack 1.81 + Al-Dhafra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.49

Al-Dhafra attack 1.63 + Al Urooba defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Urooba scores more
40%
level
25%
Al-Dhafra scores more
35%

Al Urooba at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Urooba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Urooba 3–1 Al-Dhafra

Al Urooba beat Al-Dhafra 3-1 in Division 1 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Al Orooba Club / MS2 in Mirbih / Murbah.