Al-Dhafra 2–3 Al Urooba: Result & Stats

Al-Dhafra

AET

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Al Urooba

10/14/2023

Presidents Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundAl Dhafra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al-Dhafra49%

×Draw28%

Al Urooba24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-DhafraExpected goals in this matchAl Urooba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.88

Al-Dhafra

1.38

Al Urooba

0.88

Al-Dhafra creates 57% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

0.75

1.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Al-Dhafra

1.00

Al Urooba

0.75

allows per match

Al-Dhafra

1.00

Al Urooba

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Dhafra+0.00on par

Al Urooba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Dhafra ↓

Al Urooba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al-Dhafra or draw

76%

Al-Dhafra or Al Urooba

72%

Draw or Al Urooba

51%

Winning margin

Al-Dhafra wins by 2+

23%

Al Urooba wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al-Dhafra 1+ goals

75%

Al-Dhafra 2+ goals

40%

Al-Dhafra 3+ goals

16%

Al Urooba 1+ goals

59%

Al Urooba 2+ goals

22%

Al Urooba 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)

67%

Al Urooba (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Dhafra at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Al Urooba away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Dhafra attack 1.00 + Al Urooba defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Urooba attack 0.75 + Al-Dhafra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al-Dhafra scores more

49%

level

28%

Al Urooba scores more

24%

Al-Dhafra at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al-Dhafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff