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Al-Tirsana vs Al-Nahda — Premier League 2019

Al-Tirsana
Al-Tirsana
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Al-Nahda
Al-Nahda
1/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · West - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al-Tirsana67%
×Draw19%
Al-Nahda14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Tirsana
2.13
Al-Nahda
0.83

Al-Tirsana creates 157% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

creates per match

Al-Tirsana
1.37
Al-Nahda
0.25

allows per match

Al-Tirsana
1.42
Al-Nahda
2.88

finishing

Al-Tirsana+0.00on par
Al-Nahda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Tirsana ↓

Al-Nahda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al-Tirsana or draw
86%
Al-Tirsana or Al-Nahda
81%
Draw or Al-Nahda
33%

Winning margin

Al-Tirsana wins by 2+
43%
Al-Nahda wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al-Tirsana 1+ goals
88%
Al-Tirsana 2+ goals
63%
Al-Tirsana 3+ goals
35%
Al-Nahda 1+ goals
56%
Al-Nahda 2+ goals
20%
Al-Nahda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al-Tirsana (draw refunded)
83%
Al-Nahda (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Tirsana at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Al-Nahda away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Tirsana attack 1.37 + Al-Nahda defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.13

Al-Nahda attack 0.25 + Al-Tirsana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Al-Tirsana scores more
67%
level
19%
Al-Nahda scores more
14%

Al-Tirsana at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Al-Tirsana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al-Tirsana 3–2 Al-Nahda

Al-Tirsana beat Al-Nahda 3-2 in Premier League on January 20, 2025.