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Al-Nahda vs Al-Tirsana — Premier League 2019

Al-Nahda
Al-Nahda
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 5
Al-Tirsana
Al-Tirsana
4/5/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · West - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al-Nahda14%
×Draw19%
Al-Tirsana67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nahda
0.88
Al-Tirsana
2.17

Al-Tirsana creates 147% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al-Nahda
0.38
Al-Tirsana
1.21

allows per match

Al-Nahda
3.13
Al-Tirsana
1.37

finishing

Al-Nahda+0.00on par
Al-Tirsana+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nahda ↓

Al-Tirsana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al-Nahda or draw
33%
Al-Nahda or Al-Tirsana
81%
Draw or Al-Tirsana
86%

Winning margin

Al-Nahda wins by 2+
4%
Al-Tirsana wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Al-Nahda 1+ goals
59%
Al-Nahda 2+ goals
22%
Al-Nahda 3+ goals
6%
Al-Tirsana 1+ goals
89%
Al-Tirsana 2+ goals
64%
Al-Tirsana 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Al-Nahda (draw refunded)
17%
Al-Tirsana (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nahda at home — creates 0.38, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

Al-Tirsana away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nahda attack 0.38 + Al-Tirsana defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.88

Al-Tirsana attack 1.21 + Al-Nahda defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Al-Nahda scores more
14%
level
19%
Al-Tirsana scores more
67%

Al-Tirsana at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Al-Tirsana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Nahda vs Al-Tirsana

Al-Tirsana beat Al-Nahda 7-0 in Premier League on April 5, 2025.