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Al Thaid vs Al Ramms — Division 1 2018

Al Thaid
Al Thaid
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Al Ramms
Al Ramms
1/27/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 18Al Rams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Al Thaid50%
×Draw24%
Al Ramms26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Thaid
1.76
Al Ramms
1.21

Al Thaid creates 45% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 43 away

creates per match

Al Thaid
1.33
Al Ramms
0.95

allows per match

Al Thaid
1.48
Al Ramms
2.19

finishing

Al Thaid+0.00on par
Al Ramms+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Thaid ↓

Al Ramms →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Thaid or draw
74%
Al Thaid or Al Ramms
76%
Draw or Al Ramms
50%

Winning margin

Al Thaid wins by 2+
27%
Al Ramms wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Thaid 1+ goals
83%
Al Thaid 2+ goals
52%
Al Thaid 3+ goals
26%
Al Ramms 1+ goals
70%
Al Ramms 2+ goals
34%
Al Ramms 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Thaid (draw refunded)
66%
Al Ramms (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Thaid at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Al Ramms away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Thaid attack 1.33 + Al Ramms defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.76

Al Ramms attack 0.95 + Al Thaid defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Thaid scores more
50%
level
24%
Al Ramms scores more
26%

Al Thaid at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Thaid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Thaid 3–0 Al Ramms

Al Thaid beat Al Ramms 3-0 in Division 1 on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Al Rams Stadium in Al Rams.