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Al Ramms vs Al Thaid — Division 1 2018

Al Ramms
Al Ramms
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Thaid
Al Thaid
3/18/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 26Al Jazirah Al Hamra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Al Ramms32%
×Draw24%
Al Thaid44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ramms
1.38
Al Thaid
1.64

Al Thaid creates 19% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 100 away

creates per match

Al Ramms
1.24
Al Thaid
1.10

allows per match

Al Ramms
2.17
Al Thaid
1.51

finishing

Al Ramms+0.00on par
Al Thaid+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ramms ↓

Al Thaid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al Ramms or draw
56%
Al Ramms or Al Thaid
76%
Draw or Al Thaid
68%

Winning margin

Al Ramms wins by 2+
14%
Al Thaid wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al Ramms 1+ goals
75%
Al Ramms 2+ goals
40%
Al Ramms 3+ goals
16%
Al Thaid 1+ goals
81%
Al Thaid 2+ goals
49%
Al Thaid 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Al Ramms (draw refunded)
43%
Al Thaid (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ramms at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.17 · 42 matches

Al Thaid away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ramms attack 1.24 + Al Thaid defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Thaid attack 1.10 + Al Ramms defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Ramms scores more
32%
level
24%
Al Thaid scores more
44%

Al Thaid at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Thaid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Ramms 0–1 Al Thaid

Al Thaid beat Al Ramms 1-0 in Division 1 on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Al Jazirah Al Hamra Stadium in Al Jazirah Al Hamra.