Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Talaba vs Al Najaf — Iraqi League 2025

Al Talaba
Al Talaba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Al Najaf
Al Najaf
H. Oueslati 44'
N. D. Ndasi 23'
F. Ridha 5'
4/8/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 27Al Talaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Al Talaba49%
×Draw28%
Al Najaf22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Talaba
1.35
Al Najaf
0.81

Al Talaba creates 67% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 21 away

creates per match

Al Talaba
1.12
Al Najaf
0.71

allows per match

Al Talaba
0.91
Al Najaf
1.57

finishing

Al Talaba+0.00on par
Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Talaba ↓

Al Najaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Talaba or draw
78%
Al Talaba or Al Najaf
72%
Draw or Al Najaf
51%

Winning margin

Al Talaba wins by 2+
24%
Al Najaf wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Talaba 1+ goals
74%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
39%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
15%
Al Najaf 1+ goals
56%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
19%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Talaba (draw refunded)
69%
Al Najaf (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Talaba at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Talaba attack 1.12 + Al Najaf defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Al Najaf attack 0.71 + Al Talaba defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Talaba scores more
49%
level
28%
Al Najaf scores more
22%

Al Talaba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
F. Ridha
23'
N. D. Ndasi
44'
H. Oueslati
86'
H. Abbas
86'
H. Abbas
90+9'
H. Ashour

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Talaba 2–1 Al Najaf

Al Talaba beat Al Najaf 2-1 in Iraqi League on April 8, 2026.

Goals: F. Ridha (5'), N. D. Ndasi (23'), H. Oueslati (44').

The match was played at Al Talaba Stadium in Baghdad.