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Al Talaba vs Al Najaf — Iraqi League 2025

Al Talaba
Al Talaba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Najaf
Al Najaf
A. Amutu 69'
Loay Al Ani 45+5' (pen)
Hasan Dakhel 90+6'
1/4/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 12Al-Madina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al Talaba48%
×Draw28%
Al Najaf24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Talaba
1.31
Al Najaf
0.83

Al Talaba creates 58% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 36 away

creates per match

Al Talaba
1.12
Al Najaf
0.78

allows per match

Al Talaba
0.88
Al Najaf
1.50

finishing

Al Talaba+0.00on par
Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Talaba ↓

Al Najaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Talaba or draw
76%
Al Talaba or Al Najaf
72%
Draw or Al Najaf
52%

Winning margin

Al Talaba wins by 2+
22%
Al Najaf wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Talaba 1+ goals
73%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
38%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
14%
Al Najaf 1+ goals
56%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
20%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Talaba (draw refunded)
67%
Al Najaf (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Talaba at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 41 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Talaba attack 1.12 + Al Najaf defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Al Najaf attack 0.78 + Al Talaba defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Talaba scores more
48%
level
28%
Al Najaf scores more
24%

Al Talaba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+5'
Loay Al AniPenalty
69'
A. Amutu
90+6'
Hasan Dakhel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Talaba vs Al Najaf

Al Talaba beat Al Najaf 2-1 in Iraqi League on January 4, 2025.

Goals: Loay Al Ani (45+5' pen), A. Amutu (69'), Hasan Dakhel (90+6').

The match was played at Al-Madina International Stadium in Baghdad.