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Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat — Division 1 2018

Al Taee
Al Taee
FT
0 – 2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Khaleej Saihat
2/9/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 20Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Al Taee39%
×Draw27%
Al Khaleej Saihat34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taee
1.29
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.17

Al Taee creates 10% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 60 away

creates per match

Al Taee
1.41
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.22

allows per match

Al Taee
1.12
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.17

finishing

Al Taee+0.00on par
Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taee ↓

Al Khaleej Saihat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Taee or draw
66%
Al Taee or Al Khaleej Saihat
73%
Draw or Al Khaleej Saihat
61%

Winning margin

Al Taee wins by 2+
18%
Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Taee 1+ goals
72%
Al Taee 2+ goals
37%
Al Taee 3+ goals
14%
Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals
69%
Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals
33%
Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Taee (draw refunded)
54%
Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taee at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 74 matches

Al Khaleej Saihat away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taee attack 1.41 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.22 + Al Taee defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Taee scores more
39%
level
27%
Al Khaleej Saihat scores more
34%

Al Taee at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Taee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Taee 0–2 Al Khaleej Saihat

Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Taee 2-0 in Division 1 on February 9, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Hail.