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Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Taee — Pro League 2018

Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Khaleej Saihat
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Taee
Al Taee
11/9/2023Pro LeaguePro League · Round 13Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Al Khaleej Saihat46%
×Draw25%
Al Taee29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.60
Al Taee
1.21

Al Khaleej Saihat creates 32% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 47 away

creates per match

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.32
Al Taee
0.83

allows per match

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.59
Al Taee
1.87

finishing

Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par
Al Taee+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khaleej Saihat ↓

Al Taee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al Khaleej Saihat or draw
71%
Al Khaleej Saihat or Al Taee
75%
Draw or Al Taee
54%

Winning margin

Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+
24%
Al Taee wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals
80%
Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals
47%
Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals
22%
Al Taee 1+ goals
70%
Al Taee 2+ goals
34%
Al Taee 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)
62%
Al Taee (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khaleej Saihat at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Al Taee away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.87 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.32 + Al Taee defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.60

Al Taee attack 0.83 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Khaleej Saihat scores more
46%
level
25%
Al Taee scores more
29%

Al Khaleej Saihat at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Khaleej Saihat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al Khaleej Saihat 3–1 Al Taee

Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Taee 3-1 in Pro League on November 9, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Khobar.