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Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC — Pro League 2018

Al Taee
Al Taee
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
5/29/2022Pro LeaguePro League · Round 28Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Al Taee32%
×Draw24%
Al-Ittihad FC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taee
1.36
Al-Ittihad FC
1.61

Al-Ittihad FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 125 away

creates per match

Al Taee
1.47
Al-Ittihad FC
1.74

allows per match

Al Taee
1.49
Al-Ittihad FC
1.26

finishing

Al Taee+0.00on par
Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taee ↓

Al-Ittihad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Taee or draw
57%
Al Taee or Al-Ittihad FC
76%
Draw or Al-Ittihad FC
68%

Winning margin

Al Taee wins by 2+
14%
Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al Taee 1+ goals
74%
Al Taee 2+ goals
39%
Al Taee 3+ goals
16%
Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
80%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
48%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Al Taee (draw refunded)
43%
Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taee at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.49 · 47 matches

Al-Ittihad FC away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.26 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taee attack 1.47 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.74 + Al Taee defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Taee scores more
32%
level
24%
Al-Ittihad FC scores more
43%

Al-Ittihad FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC

Al Taee beat Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 in Pro League on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Hail.