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Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee — Pro League 2018

Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Taee
Al Taee
5/31/2023Pro LeaguePro League · Round 30King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Al-Ittihad FC58%
×Draw22%
Al Taee19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ittihad FC
1.86
Al Taee
0.96

Al-Ittihad FC creates 94% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 47 away

creates per match

Al-Ittihad FC
1.85
Al Taee
0.83

allows per match

Al-Ittihad FC
1.08
Al Taee
1.87

finishing

Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par
Al Taee+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad FC ↓

Al Taee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad FC or draw
81%
Al-Ittihad FC or Al Taee
78%
Draw or Al Taee
42%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
34%
Al Taee wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
84%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
55%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
28%
Al Taee 1+ goals
62%
Al Taee 2+ goals
25%
Al Taee 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
75%
Al Taee (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.08 · 126 matches

Al Taee away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.87 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.85 + Al Taee defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.86

Al Taee attack 0.83 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al-Ittihad FC scores more
58%
level
22%
Al Taee scores more
19%

Al-Ittihad FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Taee 2-0 in Pro League on May 31, 2023.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.