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Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Pro League 2018

Al Taee
Al Taee
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2/24/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 21Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Al Taee35%
×Draw24%
Al-Ahli Jeddah41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taee
1.44
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 111 away

creates per match

Al Taee
1.47
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.65

allows per match

Al Taee
1.49
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.41

finishing

Al Taee+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taee ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Taee or draw
59%
Al Taee or Al-Ahli Jeddah
76%
Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah
65%

Winning margin

Al Taee wins by 2+
16%
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Al Taee 1+ goals
76%
Al Taee 2+ goals
42%
Al Taee 3+ goals
18%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
79%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
46%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Al Taee (draw refunded)
46%
Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taee at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.49 · 47 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.41 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taee attack 1.47 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.65 + Al Taee defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Taee scores more
35%
level
24%
Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
41%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Taee 1 – 4 Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Taee 4-1 in Pro League on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Hail.