Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–0 Al Taee: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Jeddah

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Taee

F. Kessié 59'

R. Mahrez 39'

8/29/2023

Pro League · Round 4Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah61%

×Draw22%

Al Taee18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli JeddahExpected goals in this matchAl Taee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.94

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.95

Al Taee

0.94

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 107% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 47 away

2.02

creates per match

0.83

1.05

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.02

Al Taee

0.83

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.05

Al Taee

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Al Taee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Al Taee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw

82%

Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Taee

78%

Draw or Al Taee

39%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

36%

Al Taee wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

86%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

58%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

31%

Al Taee 1+ goals

61%

Al Taee 2+ goals

24%

Al Taee 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

78%

Al Taee (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Al Taee away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.87 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.02 + Al Taee defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.95

Al Taee attack 0.83 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

61%

level

22%

Al Taee scores more

18%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

R. Mahrez

Al-Ahli Jeddah · M

8.9

Match Events

33'

Alfa SemedoCard upgrade

35'

Alfa Semedo

39'

R. Mahrez↳ A. Saint-Maximin

43'

Tariq Mohammed

46'

Jamal Bajandouh← Mohammed Al Qunaian

57'

Ali Al Asmari← Mohammed Al Majhad

59'

F. Kessié↳ R. Mahrez

60'

Victor Braga

69'

Abdulaziz Al Harabi← Tariq Abdullah

69'

Salem Al Toiawy← Hazaa Al Hazaa

82'

Abdulkarim Sultan← E. Roco

84'

Fahad Al Rashidi← Sumayhan Al Nabit

87'

Abdulaziz Majrashi← Hussain Qasim

90+6'

Merih Demiral

90+2'

Ali Al-Asmari

90+8'

Abdullah Otayf← Roberto Firmino

90+8'

Hassan Al Ali← R. Mahrez

90+8'

Ibrahim Al Zubaidi← E. Alioski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-AhliAl

Overview

60%Possession40%

23Total Shots3

7Corners1

23Fouls17

Shots

23Total Shots3

9On Target1

8Off Target2

6Blocked0

18Inside Box0

5Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

467Total Passes328

404Accurate Passes263

87%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

23Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0