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Al Taawon vs Al Arabi — Division 1 2018

Al Taawon
Al Taawon
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Arabi
Al Arabi
2/12/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 21Mohammed Bin Saud Al-Qasimi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Al Taawon33%
×Draw25%
Al Arabi43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taawon
1.33
Al Arabi
1.56

Al Arabi creates 17% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 100 away

creates per match

Al Taawon
1.27
Al Arabi
1.50

allows per match

Al Taawon
1.62
Al Arabi
1.40

finishing

Al Taawon+0.00on par
Al Arabi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taawon ↓

Al Arabi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Taawon or draw
57%
Al Taawon or Al Arabi
75%
Draw or Al Arabi
67%

Winning margin

Al Taawon wins by 2+
14%
Al Arabi wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al Taawon 1+ goals
74%
Al Taawon 2+ goals
38%
Al Taawon 3+ goals
15%
Al Arabi 1+ goals
79%
Al Arabi 2+ goals
46%
Al Arabi 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Al Taawon (draw refunded)
43%
Al Arabi (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taawon at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.62 · 73 matches

Al Arabi away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.40 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taawon attack 1.27 + Al Arabi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Al Arabi attack 1.50 + Al Taawon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Taawon scores more
33%
level
25%
Al Arabi scores more
43%

Al Arabi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Arabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Taawon vs Al Arabi

Al Taawon and Al Arabi drew 1-1 in Division 1 on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Mohammed Bin Saud Al-Qasimi Stadium in Ash Sha'm.