Al Arabi 3–0 Al Taawon: Result & Stats

Al Arabi

FT

3 – 0

Al Taawon

10/15/2023

Presidents Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundAl Arabi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Arabi60%

×Draw20%

Al Taawon21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al ArabiExpected goals in this matchAl Taawon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.29

Al Arabi

2.30

Al Taawon

1.29

Al Arabi creates 78% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.57

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Al Arabi

2.00

Al Taawon

1.00

allows per match

Al Arabi

1.57

Al Taawon

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Arabi+0.00on par

Al Taawon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi ↓

Al Taawon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Al Arabi or draw

79%

Al Arabi or Al Taawon

80%

Draw or Al Taawon

40%

Winning margin

Al Arabi wins by 2+

38%

Al Taawon wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al Arabi 1+ goals

90%

Al Arabi 2+ goals

67%

Al Arabi 3+ goals

40%

Al Taawon 1+ goals

72%

Al Taawon 2+ goals

37%

Al Taawon 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi (draw refunded)

74%

Al Taawon (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Al Taawon away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi attack 2.00 + Al Taawon defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Al Taawon attack 1.00 + Al Arabi defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al Arabi scores more

60%

level

20%

Al Taawon scores more

21%

Al Arabi at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al Arabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff