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Al Shorta vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2020

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Erbil
Erbil
Ahmed Farhan 53', 22'
Amjad Radhi 85'
4/25/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 25Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Al Shorta53%
×Draw25%
Erbil22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.56
Erbil
0.90

Al Shorta creates 73% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 110 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.84
Erbil
1.11

allows per match

Al Shorta
0.68
Erbil
1.29

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
78%
Al Shorta or Erbil
75%
Draw or Erbil
47%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
28%
Erbil wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
79%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
46%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
21%
Erbil 1+ goals
59%
Erbil 2+ goals
23%
Erbil 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
71%
Erbil (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.68 · 111 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.84 + Erbil defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.56

Erbil attack 1.11 + Al Shorta defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Shorta scores more
53%
level
25%
Erbil scores more
22%

Al Shorta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
Ahmed Farhan
53'
Ahmed Farhan
85'
Amjad Radhi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Shorta 2–1 Erbil

Al Shorta beat Erbil 2-1 in Iraqi League on April 25, 2023.

Goals: Ahmed Farhan (22', 53'), Amjad Radhi (85').

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.