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Al Shorta vs Al Karkh — Iraqi League 2025

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Karkh
Al Karkh
Mohanad Ali 11'
5/8/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 32Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Al Shorta48%
×Draw26%
Al Karkh26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.49
Al Karkh
1.02

Al Shorta creates 46% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 33 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.80
Al Karkh
1.24

allows per match

Al Shorta
0.80
Al Karkh
1.18

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Al Karkh+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Al Karkh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
74%
Al Shorta or Al Karkh
74%
Draw or Al Karkh
52%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
24%
Al Karkh wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
77%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
44%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
19%
Al Karkh 1+ goals
64%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
27%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
65%
Al Karkh (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 41 matches

Al Karkh away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.80 + Al Karkh defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.49

Al Karkh attack 1.24 + Al Shorta defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Shorta scores more
48%
level
26%
Al Karkh scores more
26%

Al Shorta at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Mohanad Ali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Shorta 1–0 Al Karkh

Al Shorta beat Al Karkh 1-0 in Iraqi League on May 8, 2025.

Goals: Mohanad Ali (11').

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Baghdād.