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Al Karkh vs Al Shorta — Iraqi League 2025

Al Karkh
Al Karkh
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
C. Kouvouama 37'
4 Sajjad Jasim 90+14' (pen)
Lucas 65'
12/11/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 11Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Karkh23%
×Draw26%
Al Shorta51%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karkh
0.96
Al Shorta
1.55

Al Shorta creates 61% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 41 away

creates per match

Al Karkh
1.15
Al Shorta
1.93

allows per match

Al Karkh
1.18
Al Shorta
0.78

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw
49%
Al Karkh or Al Shorta
74%
Draw or Al Shorta
77%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+
8%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals
62%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
25%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
7%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
79%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
46%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)
31%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.15 + Al Shorta defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.96

Al Shorta attack 1.93 + Al Karkh defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al Karkh scores more
23%
level
26%
Al Shorta scores more
51%

Al Shorta at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
C. Kouvouama
65'
Lucas
90+14'
4 Sajjad JasimPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Karkh 1–2 Al Shorta

Al Shorta beat Al Karkh 2-1 in Iraqi League on December 11, 2024.

Goals: C. Kouvouama (37'), Lucas (65'), 4 Sajjad Jasim (90+14' pen).

The match was played at Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium in Bagdad.